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US Elections

Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?

11% say Republican Party wins

Up 1 point today.

Decided by official election authority, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 11¢ means about an 11% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Democratic PartyDemocratic Party wins.90%

    What has to happen

    Democratic Party wins, under the rules.

  • Republican PartyRepublican Party wins.11%

    What has to happen

    Republican Party wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

The source says that the provided article discusses a Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, but it does not contain information regarding the TX-15 House seat.

Sources checked 7:11 PM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
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-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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