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US Elections

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

30% say Republican Party wins

Down 24 points today.

Decided by official election authority, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 30¢ means about a 30% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Democratic PartyDemocratic Party wins.70%

    What has to happen

    Democratic Party wins, under the rules.

  • Republican PartyRepublican Party wins.30%

    What has to happen

    Republican Party wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Official election authority.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 6.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 35.5¢ to 29¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission11m ago

  • The price rose 13.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 22¢ to 35¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission42m ago

  • The price rose 14.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 18¢ to 32¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission1h ago

  • The price fell 10.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 29¢ to 19¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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