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US Elections

Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?

<1% say yes

Down 8 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, the market settles as “Tie”.
  • If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: race calls after election dayNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the event happening and being officially reported
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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