Bitcoin

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 4?

10% say yes

Down 22 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 4, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 10¢ means about a 10% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.10%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 4, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.90%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 4, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart

Yes 10%No 90%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 30 points in about 15 minutes, from 34.5¢ to 4.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)5m ago
The price fell 62 points in about 15 minutes, from 72.5¢ to 10.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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