Other

Will the next Israeli government hold fewer than 58 ?

57% say yes

Down 6 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 57¢ means about a 57% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Yes57%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.43%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as the lowest range bracket.
In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Price chart

Yes 57%No 43%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the Knesset held by the parties included in the first Israeli government formed after…”
“If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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