Other

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?

16% say yes

Down 45 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 16¢ means about a 16% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.16%
What has to happen
Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
NoIt doesn’t happen.84%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag.
If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

Price chart

Yes 16%No 84%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Jul 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will…”
“If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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