Other
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
48% say yes
Prices last updated 88 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.
Down 18 points today.
Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 48¢ means about a 48% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.48%
What has to happen
The next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.52%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard.
See all fine print
- If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".
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