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Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

<1% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the-numbers.com, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%
What has to happen
The relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles.

See all fine print

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by the-numbers.com

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on the-numbers.com (the-numbers.com). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: the-numbers.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026.”
“This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026.”
“If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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