Fed & Rates

Will Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

77% say yes

Up 6 points today.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by January 27, 2027).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 77¢ means about a 77% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its next meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest .

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.77%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by January 27, 2027.
NoIt doesn’t happen.23%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Federal Reserve Board / FOMC.

The one trap

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, the market settles as "Other".

Price chart

Yes 77%No 23%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)View on Kalshi

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 6:59 PM ET.

Next official event: FOMC statement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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