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Fed & Rates

Will by 0.5 points or more on Jan 27?

1% say a raise of 0.5 points or more

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by January 27, 2027).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its January 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . Yes wins if: The Fed’s statement raises the top of its by 0.5 (50 ) or more.

Possible results

  • YesBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.1%

    What has to happen

    The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.

  • NoThe Fed decides something else.99%

    What has to happen

    The statement shows a different change, or none.

What the news says

The source says the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent during its October 2026 meeting.

Sources checked 1:38 AM ET

See sources (3)

News data from GDELT. Summary written by AI from the sources listed, then checked against them.

The one trap

Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.

See all fine print
  • If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (22h ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jan 27, 2027 (time zone not stated).

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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