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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 21% on “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)”.

It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (deadline) (time zone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: FOMC statement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 25
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (deadline) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…idered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver