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Fed & Rates

Will Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

79% say yes

Up 4 points today.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by December 9, 2026).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 79¢ means about a 79% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its next meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest .

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.79%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 9, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.21%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

Most sources say the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Some disagree on the decision, as two committee members preferred to raise the rate by 1/4 percentage point.

Sources checked 1:18 AM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT. Summary written by AI from the sources listed, then checked against them.

The one trap

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, the market settles as "Other".

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Next official event: FOMC statement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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