MarketWeaver

Fed & Rates

Will by 0.5 points or more on Apr 28?

5% say a cut of 0.5 points or more

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by April 28, 2027).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its April 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . Yes wins if: The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its by 0.5 (50 ) or more.

Possible results

  • YesBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.5%

    What has to happen

    The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.

  • NoThe Fed decides something else.95%

    What has to happen

    The statement shows a different change, or none.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Federal Reserve Board / FOMC.

The one trap

Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.

See all fine print
  • If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)View on Kalshi

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve announces revised tentative schedule of Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2027" (21h ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Apr 28, 2027, 7:59 PM ET.

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar…”
  • “If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.