US Elections

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

<1% say Democrats win

Down 3 points today.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

RepublicansRepublicans win the election.99%
What has to happen
Republicans win, under the rules.
DemocratsDemocrats win the election.<1%
What has to happen
Democrats win, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 5.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 6.3¢ to 1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
5m ago
Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
35m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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