MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

US Elections

Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?

19% say Democrats will be in the next Israeli government

Down 12 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YasharYashar wins.61%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • TogetherTogether wins.47%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • RZP-ZehutRZP-Zehut wins.36%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • LikudLikud wins.34%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

Show 11 more results
  • ShasShas win.33%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Yisrael BeiteinuYisrael Beiteinu wins.28%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Otzma YehuditOtzma Yehudit wins.25%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • United Torah JudaismUnited Torah Judaism wins.23%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Ra'amRa'am wins.20%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • DemocratsDemocrats win.19%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Joint ListJoint List wins.8%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Blue and WhiteBlue and White wins.7%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • New Economic Party / The ReservistsNew Economic Party / The Reservists wins.5%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • NoamNoam wins.4%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

  • Amcha YisraelAmcha Yisrael wins.4%

    What has to happen

    The listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".
  • In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Big trades across all markets