Geopolitics

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

29% say Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by June 30, 2027.

Polymarket lists November 28, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 29¢ means about a 29% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Kuomintang (KMT)Kuomintang (KMT) wins.70%
What has to happen
Kuomintang (KMT) wins, under the rules.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins.29%
What has to happen
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins, under the rules.
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) wins.<1%
What has to happen
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 29%No 71%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major…”
“If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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