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US Elections

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?

25% say yes

Up 16 points today.

Decided by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 25¢ means about a 25% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.25%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.75%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: no rules on fileSettled by history.house.gov
Fine-print risk
-
no rules on file
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: history.house.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: No contract text is on file, so the settlement trigger cannot be checked.

Source named: history.house.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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