US Elections
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
69% say yes
Up 55 points today.
Decided by history.house.gov, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Results can take until June 30, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 69¢ means about a 69% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
YesWhat the question describes actually happens.69%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.31%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.
What the news says
News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Named URL in rules: history.house.gov.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "Other".
Price chart
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Recorded moves
The price rose 16.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 57.4¢ to 73.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: history.house.gov57m ago
The price fell 13.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 68.8¢ to 55.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: history.house.gov1h ago
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