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Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

59% say yes

Up 14 points today.

Decided by youtube.com, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 59¢ means about a 59% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.59%

    What has to happen

    The Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.41%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 71.5¢ to 68¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com4h ago

  • The price rose 9.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 63.5¢ to 72.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com5h ago

  • The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 59¢ to 63.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com6h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 51.5¢ to 55¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com8h ago

  • The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 49¢ to 52¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com8h ago

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 53.5¢ to 50.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com10h ago

  • The price rose 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 45.5¢ to 52.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: youtube.com10h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by youtube.com
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: youtube.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: youtube.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital…”
  • “The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.”
  • “If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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