Fed & Rates

Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 at the October interest rate announcement?

Settled: Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)

Decided by Bank of Canada official website

Result posted: Wed Oct 28, 11:47 AM ET

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Wed Oct 28, 11:47 AM ET

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.Yes
What has to happen
The bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points.
No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.No
What has to happen
The bank leaves its rate the same.
Raise by 0.5 points (50 bps) or moreBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.No
What has to happen
The bank raises its rate by 0.5 percentage points or more.
Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.No
What has to happen
The bank lowers its rate by 0.25 percentage points.

Show 1 more results

Lower by 0.5 points (50 bps) or moreBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.No
What has to happen
The bank lowers its rate by 0.5 percentage points or more.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.

See all fine print

If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market settles as the “No Change” bracket.

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by Bank of Canada official website

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bank of Canada official website (bankofcanada.ca). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: Bank of Canada official website (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

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