Fed & Rates

Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 at the December interest rate announcement?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Bank of Canada official website, by December 9, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 9, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.

See all fine print

If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market settles as the “No Change” bracket.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by Bank of Canada official website

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bank of Canada official website (bankofcanada.ca). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: Bank of Canada official website (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate…”
“If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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