US Elections

Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

27% say yes

Up 24 points today.

Decided by major news reports.

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 27¢ means about a 27% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: The listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.

Possible results

Yes27%
What has to happen
The listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
NoIt doesn’t happen.73%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place.
If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “No”.

Price chart

Yes 27%No 73%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting…”
“If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.