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US Elections

Will Te Pāti Māori win the most in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

<1% say Te Pāti Māori wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the election on November 7, 2026, using major news reports.

Results can take until October 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (6 in all).

Possible results

  • National PartyNational Party wins the election.67%

    What has to happen

    National Party wins, under the rules.

  • Labour PartyLabour Party wins the election.34%

    What has to happen

    Labour Party wins, under the rules.

  • Green PartyGreen Party wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Green Party wins, under the rules.

  • ACT New ZealandACT New Zealand wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    ACT New Zealand wins, under the rules.

Show 2 more results
  • New Zealand First PartyNew Zealand First Party wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    New Zealand First Party wins, under the rules.

  • Te Pāti MāoriTe Pāti Māori wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Te Pāti Māori wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

The source says that the provided article discusses the results of recent United States midterm elections and does not contain information regarding the 2026 New Zealand legislative election.

Sources checked 4:22 AM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by Electoral Commission (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Electoral Commission) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Electoral Commission (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a…”
  • “If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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