Other

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

92% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by portwatch.imf.org, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 92¢ means about a 92% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.92%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.8%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, the market settles as “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

See all fine print

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered.

Price chart

Yes 92%No 8%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by portwatch.imf.org

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: portwatch.imf.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”)…”
“If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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