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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Named source: the-numbers.com · End date Jan 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Spider-Man: Brand New Day having the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 at about 39%.

It rose 10 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: observed eventSettled by the-numbers.com
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: the-numbers.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: the-numbers.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: the-numbers.com
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: the-numbers.com · https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…he movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 1…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver