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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

93% say Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Up 1 point today.

Decided by Named URL in rules: boxofficemojo.com, by January 7, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 93¢ means about a 93% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Spider-Man: Brand New DaySpider-Man: Brand New Day wins.93%

    What has to happen

    Spider-Man: Brand New Day wins, under the rules.

  • Avengers: DoomsdayAvengers: Doomsday wins.7%

    What has to happen

    Avengers: Doomsday wins, under the rules.

  • Wicked: For GoodWicked: For Good wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Wicked: For Good wins, under the rules.

  • Wuthering HeightsWuthering Heights wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Wuthering Heights wins, under the rules.

Show 10 more results
  • Scream 7Scream 7 wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Scream 7 wins, under the rules.

  • MichaelMichael wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Michael wins, under the rules.

  • Star Wars: The Mandalorian and GroguStar Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu wins, under the rules.

  • Toy Story 5Toy Story 5 wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Toy Story 5 wins, under the rules.

  • OdysseyOdyssey wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Odyssey wins, under the rules.

  • Hunger Games: Sunrise on the ReapingHunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping wins, under the rules.

  • Dune: MessiahDune: Messiah wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dune: Messiah wins, under the rules.

  • Project Hail MaryProject Hail Mary wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Project Hail Mary wins, under the rules.

  • Super Mario Galaxy MovieSuper Mario Galaxy Movie wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Super Mario Galaxy Movie wins, under the rules.

  • Jumanji 3Jumanji 3 wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jumanji 3 wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

See all fine print
  • If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by boxofficemojo.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: boxofficemojo.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Jan 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: boxofficemojo.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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