Tech

Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?

Settled: Yes

Result posted: Fri Nov 13, 7:57 PM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Fri Nov 13, 7:57 PM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 after it makes contact with Earth upon landing.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.Yes
What has to happen
The booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.No
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by youtube.com

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on youtube.com (youtube.com). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: youtube.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.”
“If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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