Geopolitics

Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

1% say Santiago Abascal wins

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (3 in all).

Possible results

Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo wins the election.88%
What has to happen
Alberto Núñez Feijóo wins, under the rules.
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez wins the election.12%
What has to happen
Pedro Sánchez wins, under the rules.
Santiago AbascalSantiago Abascal wins the election.1%
What has to happen
Santiago Abascal wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes 1%No 99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…”
“This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.”
“If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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