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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

No source named in rules · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by December 31, 2026 at about 32%.

It rose 9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not name an official source.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo source named
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

No source named in rules
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
No resolution source named in the rules text
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver