MarketWeaver
?Log inSign up

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes more than 99% on “Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026”.

It rose 14 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Consensus + Confirmation Window

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (deadline, date from market title) (time zone not stated). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (deadline, date from market title) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Consensus + Confirmation WindowNeeds a qualifying event confirmed by official statements and/or a consensus of credible reporting. Intercepted munitions aimed at third parties do not alone qualify. Conflicting reports trigger a multi-day confirmation window before settlement. Rule text: "…rket will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market wi…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver