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Geopolitics

Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Settled: Cadu de Lula

Decided by consensus of credible reporting

Result posted: Sun Oct 25, 10:48 PM ET

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Sun Oct 25, 10:30 PM ET

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (26 in all).

Possible results

  • Cadu de LulaCadu de Lula wins the election.Yes

    What has to happen

    Cadu de Lula wins, under the rules.

  • AllysonAllyson wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Allyson wins, under the rules.

  • Álvaro DiasÁlvaro Dias wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Álvaro Dias wins, under the rules.

  • Arinalda do MLBArinalda do MLB wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Arinalda do MLB wins, under the rules.

Show 22 more results
  • Carlos JararacaCarlos Jararaca wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Carlos Jararaca wins, under the rules.

  • Dário BarbosaDário Barbosa wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Dário Barbosa wins, under the rules.

  • Henrique LyraHenrique Lyra wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Henrique Lyra wins, under the rules.

  • Professor Roberio PaulinoProfessor Roberio Paulino wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Professor Roberio Paulino wins, under the rules.

  • Rodrigo BolsonaroRodrigo Bolsonaro wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Rodrigo Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 1Placeholder 1 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 1 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 2Placeholder 2 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 2 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 3Placeholder 3 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 3 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 4Placeholder 4 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 4 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 5Placeholder 5 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 5 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 6Placeholder 6 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 6 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 7Placeholder 7 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 7 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 8Placeholder 8 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 8 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 9Placeholder 9 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 9 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 10Placeholder 10 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 10 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 11Placeholder 11 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 11 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 12Placeholder 12 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 12 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 13Placeholder 13 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 13 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 14Placeholder 14 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 14 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 15Placeholder 15 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 15 wins, under the rules.

  • Placeholder 16Placeholder 16 wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    Placeholder 16 wins, under the rules.

  • someone elsesomeone else wins the election.No

    What has to happen

    someone else wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Superior Electoral Court.

See all fine print
  • Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by Electoral Court (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Electoral Court) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Electoral Court (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?: explained simply · MarketWeaver