Other

Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

<1% say yes

Prices last updated 2 hours ago. They normally update every minute.

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by MLB official results, by December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules.

See all fine print

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by MLB official

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on MLB official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Dec 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: MLB official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules.”
“If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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