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Geopolitics

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

3% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 6.7¢ to 3.2¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 8 times the usual hourly amount).

    3m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).

    33m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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