US Elections

Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?

<1% say yes

Down 42 points today.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

Results can take until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Yes<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, the market settles as "Other".

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 6.5¢ to 3.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: race calls after election daySettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results can take until Mar 31, 2027.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for…”
“If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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