US Elections
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
32% say yes
Up 3 points today.
Decided by the election on November 3, 2026, using major news reports.
Results can take until January 4, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
Possible results
Yes32%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.68%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.
What the news says
The source says that PBS News is covering the 2026 midterm election results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. Correspondents Lisa Desjardins and Liz Landers are scheduled to host a live discussion at noon regarding the election outcomes.
Sources checked 11:11 AM ET
See sources (1)
News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
- If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
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