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Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?

99% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Polymarket lists October 19, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe person named in the question wins the election.99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta; however, an overwhelming consensus of trusted news reports may suffice.

Price chart

Yes 99%No 1%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by elections.ab.ca

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (elections.ab.ca). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: elections.ab.ca (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).
26m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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