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Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

35% say yes

Down 12 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by October 31, 2027.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 35¢ means about a 35% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.35%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.65%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 35%No 65%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 13.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 47.8¢ to 34.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: bechirot.gov.il (tiebreak)53m ago
The price rose 20.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.8¢ to 46.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: bechirot.gov.il (tiebreak)1h ago
The price fell 36.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 62.9¢ to 26.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: bechirot.gov.il (tiebreak)3h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by bechirot.gov.il (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (bechirot.gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 7:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with bechirot.gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: bechirot.gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Religious Zionist Party–Zehut passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).

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