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Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

.gov source: federalregister.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 6% on “Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act”.

It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingSettled by .gov source: federalregister.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
Signed/Enacted

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Fri, Jan 1, 2027 (deadline) (time zone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: Federal Register publication, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

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Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 25
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Register / Congress.gov · http://senate.gov
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Jan 1, 2027 (deadline) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Signed/EnactedRequires the measure to be signed/enacted; passage or announcement alone does not count. Rule text: "…ically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-marke…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver