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Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 in the 2026 Knesset elections?

<1% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists November 30, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Possible results

YesThe person named in the question wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 30, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 4.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 4.3¢ to 0.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)32m ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 6:59 PM ET.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).
2m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

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