Geopolitics

Will Person I be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

No live price for this market yet.

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the election on November 7, 2026, using official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Polymarket lists November 7, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

Possible results

YesNo price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 7, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 6:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also…”
“If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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