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Geopolitics

Will Person H win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?

50% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by the election on November 3, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until April 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 50¢ means about a 50% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.50%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by April 30, 2027.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.50%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Tarrant County as a result of this election.”
  • “If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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