MarketWeaver

NFL

Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?

2% say Patrick Mahomes win

About the same as yesterday.

Decided when a champion is named, by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

It stays open until the season or tournament has a winner.

Possible results

  • Joe BurrowJoe Burrow wins.26%

    What has to happen

    Joe Burrow wins, under the rules.

  • Josh AllenJosh Allen wins.24%

    What has to happen

    Josh Allen wins, under the rules.

  • Brock PurdyBrock Purdy wins.13%

    What has to happen

    Brock Purdy wins, under the rules.

  • Jordan LoveJordan Love wins.13%

    What has to happen

    Jordan Love wins, under the rules.

Show 25 more results
  • Trevor LawrenceTrevor Lawrence wins.9%

    What has to happen

    Trevor Lawrence wins, under the rules.

  • Caleb WilliamsCaleb Williams wins.6%

    What has to happen

    Caleb Williams wins, under the rules.

  • Jaxson Smith-NjigbaJaxson Smith-Njigba wins.3%

    What has to happen

    Jaxson Smith-Njigba wins, under the rules.

  • Drake MayeDrake Maye wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Drake Maye wins, under the rules.

  • Patrick MahomesPatrick Mahomes wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Patrick Mahomes wins, under the rules.

  • Jared GoffJared Goff wins.1%

    What has to happen

    Jared Goff wins, under the rules.

  • Justin HerbertJustin Herbert wins.1%

    What has to happen

    Justin Herbert wins, under the rules.

  • Jalen HurtsJalen Hurts wins.1%

    What has to happen

    Jalen Hurts wins, under the rules.

  • Jaxson DartJaxson Dart wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jaxson Dart wins, under the rules.

  • Dak PrescottDak Prescott wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dak Prescott wins, under the rules.

  • Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr Gibbs wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jahmyr Gibbs wins, under the rules.

  • Matthew StaffordMatthew Stafford wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Matthew Stafford wins, under the rules.

  • Bo NixBo Nix wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Bo Nix wins, under the rules.

  • Lamar JacksonLamar Jackson wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Lamar Jackson wins, under the rules.

  • Baker MayfieldBaker Mayfield wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Baker Mayfield wins, under the rules.

  • Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffrey wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Christian McCaffrey wins, under the rules.

  • Saquon BarkleySaquon Barkley wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Saquon Barkley wins, under the rules.

  • Derrick HenryDerrick Henry wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Derrick Henry wins, under the rules.

  • Sam DarnoldSam Darnold wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Sam Darnold wins, under the rules.

  • De'Von AchaneDe'Von Achane wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    De'Von Achane wins, under the rules.

  • Justin JeffersonJustin Jefferson wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Justin Jefferson wins, under the rules.

  • Myles GarrettMyles Garrett wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Myles Garrett wins, under the rules.

  • Bijan RobinsonBijan Robinson wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Bijan Robinson wins, under the rules.

  • Puka NacuaPuka Nacua wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Puka Nacua wins, under the rules.

  • Ja'Marr ChaseJa'Marr Chase wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ja'Marr Chase wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules.

See all fine print
  • If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by NFL official
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on NFL official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sun, Feb 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: NFL official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules.”
  • “If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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