Geopolitics

Will Party T win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

No live price for this market yet.

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by major news reports, by November 28, 2026.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 28, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major…”
“If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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