US Elections

Will Party A win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No live price for this market yet.

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesNo price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 7, 2028.
NoIt doesn’t happen.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: race calls after election daySettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls.
Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 7, 2028. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 6, 2028, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.”
“If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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