US Elections
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Settled: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Decided by consensus of credible reporting
Result posted: Sun Oct 25, 11:23 PM ET
Trading stopped on Polymarket: Sun Oct 4, 10:52 PM ET
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (32 in all).
Possible results
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the election.Yes
What has to happen
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, under the rules.
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro wins the election.No
What has to happen
Flávio Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.
Tarcisio de FreitasTarcisio de Freitas wins the election.No
What has to happen
Tarcisio de Freitas wins, under the rules.
Jair BolsonaroJair Bolsonaro wins the election.No
What has to happen
Jair Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.
Show 28 more results
Fernando HaddadFernando Haddad wins the election.No
What has to happen
Fernando Haddad wins, under the rules.
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro wins the election.No
What has to happen
Michelle Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.
Eduardo BolsonaroEduardo Bolsonaro wins the election.No
What has to happen
Eduardo Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.
Carlos Roberto Massa JúniorCarlos Roberto Massa Júnior wins the election.No
What has to happen
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior wins, under the rules.
Renan SantosRenan Santos wins the election.No
What has to happen
Renan Santos wins, under the rules.
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado wins the election.No
What has to happen
Ronaldo Caiado wins, under the rules.
Romeu ZemaRomeu Zema wins the election.No
What has to happen
Romeu Zema wins, under the rules.
Camilo SantanaCamilo Santana wins the election.No
What has to happen
Camilo Santana wins, under the rules.
Geraldo AlckminGeraldo Alckmin wins the election.No
What has to happen
Geraldo Alckmin wins, under the rules.
Eduardo LeiteEduardo Leite wins the election.No
What has to happen
Eduardo Leite wins, under the rules.
Aldo RebeloAldo Rebelo wins the election.No
What has to happen
Aldo Rebelo wins, under the rules.
Tereza CristinaTereza Cristina wins the election.No
What has to happen
Tereza Cristina wins, under the rules.
Helder BarbalhoHelder Barbalho wins the election.No
What has to happen
Helder Barbalho wins, under the rules.
Pablo MarçalPablo Marçal wins the election.No
What has to happen
Pablo Marçal wins, under the rules.
Augusto CuryAugusto Cury wins the election.No
What has to happen
Augusto Cury wins, under the rules.
Person OPerson O wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person O wins, under the rules.
Person PPerson P wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person P wins, under the rules.
Person QPerson Q wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person Q wins, under the rules.
Person RPerson R wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person R wins, under the rules.
Person SPerson S wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person S wins, under the rules.
Person TPerson T wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person T wins, under the rules.
Person UPerson U wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person U wins, under the rules.
Person VPerson V wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person V wins, under the rules.
Person WPerson W wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person W wins, under the rules.
Person XPerson X wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person X wins, under the rules.
Person YPerson Y wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person Y wins, under the rules.
Person ZPerson Z wins the election.No
What has to happen
Person Z wins, under the rules.
another personanother person wins the election.No
What has to happen
another person wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Superior Electoral Court.
See all fine print
- Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.