MarketWeaver
?Log inSign up

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

.gov source: sec.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of OpenAI's IPO valuation being between $1.25T and $1.5T at about 19%.

It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by .gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Market-Close Snapshot

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…r listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indica…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver