ETFs & SEC

Will OpenAI's valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?

6% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by Securities and Exchange Commission, by December 31, 2027.

Polymarket lists June 30, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 6¢ means about a 6% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.6%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by June 30, 2027.
NoIt doesn’t happen.94%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 6%No 94%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by .gov source: sec.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Big trades across all markets