Tech

Will OpenAI not by December 31, 2026?

95% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by Primary exchange's official listing page, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 95¢ means about a 95% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

See all fine print

If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Price chart

Yes 95%No 5%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

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The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Primary exchange listing

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding). Publishes the official close each trading day. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Primary exchange listing (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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