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Geopolitics

Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?

<1% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

A meeting held in Vatican City settles as "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, the market settles as "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, the market settles as "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, the market settles as "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S.

See all fine print
  • If no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “No Talks by December 31, 2027.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of trusted news reports.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire…”
  • “If no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Talks by December 31, 2027.””
  • “Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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