Congress & Courts

Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Settled: No

Decided by the official result, under the rules

Result posted: Fri Nov 6, 4:26 PM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Fri Nov 6, 4:26 PM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.No
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.Yes
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The official result comes from the Trump administration.

See all fine print

If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “None before 2027”.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo source named

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.”
“If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.”
“This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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